| Climate Conundrum Your two recent articles on global
warming (“Danger Ahead,” September/
October; “Too Hot to Handle,” November/December) are interesting but fail to
deal adequately with the question
of man’s ability to significantly alter the warming trend. Joan Hamilton appears to be convinced that man does have this ability and presents much material in support, but little questioning. However, many members of the scientific community, and other intelligent individuals, are not convinced. Well-qualified scientists express serious doubt. Have you given thought to presenting both sides of this issue? How about an article, not dominated by input from pro-control academics, that gives equal, unbiased attention to the pros and the cons? Such an article seems desirable in giving your readers an opportunity to reach their own conclusions as to man’s ability to control the climate. John W. McDonald, ’47
Kula, Hawaii Your interesting articles on global warming suggest a couple of conclusions. First, today we do not have a solution to global warming that is technologically, economically, politically or socially feasible. Second, even in the most optimistic mitigation scenarios, to a very large
degree we are going to have to learn to live with the consequences, which can hardly be predicted with any great accuracy.
I hope you take the series far enough
to cover that topic, ideally without wasting much space on extremist speculations from either end of the political spectrum that often find their way into the popular press. Don Bellman, MBA ’68
Sugar Land, Texas After reading the articles concerning global warming I wish to make a cautionary response. For the past 3.5 million years there have been a series of ice advances in the Northern Hemisphere—about 35 advances and 35 interglacial episodes. The interglacial episodes last about 20,000 years and we are now 10,000 years into the
current one. During the last interglacial (about 100,000 years ago) hippos, crocodiles and palm trees existed in London. About 500 years ago we experienced
a “mini ice age” from which we are currently recovering. How do we know that the vast majority of the current global warming is not just part of the natural climatic oscillations that have occurred
for millions of years? Remember, our nation and our culture are dependent on fossil fuels as the source of industrial energy. Granted,
the bulk of our electric needs could be supplied by nuclear power, but that still leaves our transportation, food production and distribution and all the rest that need to be powered by something. For the past 200 years we as a society have gone down the path of industrialization and have reaped its benefits. We must address our energy issues in a manner that does not risk a global economic depression, for such a case could bring catastrophic consequences for everything we hold dear. Kingsley Roberts, ’75
Menlo Park, California Thanks again for your coverage of global warming. I can’t remember having chuckled as I read about the subject before, but the letters (January/February) were so well written, diverse and clever that I was delighted. I appreciate your devoting that amount of space to letters, since they are so informative. Must be something about your subscribers. David Holton, MS ’55
Twain Harte, California Some points of information regarding questions raised in the January/February issue by alumni skeptical of climate change. [One said] “I would welcome any evidence that human-generated emissions are causing anything climatic. . . .” A good source is the set of reports in Science
magazine (November 25, 2005) analyzing the contents of gas bubbles frozen in Antarctic ice. These bubbles show clearly the concentrations of greenhouse gases and also temperature (which can be estimated
from the relative concentrations of deuterium and hydrogen) over the past 700,000 years. The ice ages are clearly visible in
the data as simultaneous fluctuations of temperature and greenhouse gas concentrations. Over this period, the concentration of CO2 fluctuated between about 180 ppm and about 280 ppb, where it was at the beginning of the industrial revolution. During the last 150 years, it has risen far above the record from the previous half-million years, to 370 ppb. “Where is the survey that substantiates [that] most University scientists working on the issue agree that human-generated greenhouse gas emissions are causing
climatic shifts?” One such survey is the report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, a group of hundreds of climate experts chosen “to reflect a broad range of views, expertise and geographic expertise” sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization. In 1965, Professor Donald Kennedy showed students in Biology 10 some beautiful data from the Mauna Loa atmospheric observatory: annual fluctuations of CO2 superimposed on a steadily rising background. It didn’t take too much imagination to infer where that rising background might come from, or what the implications were for the future. The trends between 1965 and 2005 have followed pretty closely the lines that were evident back then. The clarity of the data, and the difficulty we have in accepting its implications, say more about sociology and politics than about science. Peter Waser, ’68
Lafayette, Indiana I have read with interest the two global warming articles and letters of response. In making decisions it seems wise to consider the outcomes and the seriousness of the risks for the various alternatives. On the one hand, let us accept, as fact, that humans are a prime cause of global warming and its effects. These effects include the melting of glaciers and ice caps with a rise in sea level inundating vast areas of densely populated land, and the effects of climate change on food production, spread of insect pests, invasive weeds and disease. These effects could threaten the very survival of the human race. Let us agree that this could be disastrous. On the other hand, let us accept, as fact, that humans have little or nothing
to do with global warming and we do nothing to try to stop it. Only the future will prove which is real fact. The consequences can be so disastrous
if humans are primarily responsible for global warming that I would err on the conservative side. I would embark on
an immediate concerted program to try to eliminate the human contribution to global warming, which will likely be a very expensive long-term effort. If it turns out, in the far future, that humans had little to do with global warming, we will have spent vast monetary resources and effort unnecessarily, but
we will have cleaner air, better health and possibly a better quality of life. Phil Rogers, MS ’58
Ocean Shores, Washington I was appalled when reading recent letters in STANFORD(November/December) concerning global warming. Several writers misstate facts, exhibit no understanding
of the scientific method, and have managed to survive college with apparently no critical-thinking skills. Stanford should be ashamed to have had so little impact. Kermit Smyth, ’72
Brunswick, Maine Great letters on global warming in the November/December magazine. You could practically see the spittle flying.
Climate change has been happening ever since Earth had an atmosphere; the
problem is the current rate of change.
Barring an asteroid or massive volcanic eruption, climate change in the past has been gradual, allowing ecosystems to adjust. Most of the inhabitants of this planet are not generalists like humans
who can live almost anywhere and eat almost everything. What is a polar bear to feed her cubs next spring if she can’t get to seals because the ice pack is melted? Shall we let them eat cake? Humans, like it or not, also depend on natural ecosystems; rapid
climate change and failure of nature’s services will eventually leave us with neither seals nor cake. Diane Shepherd, ’72
Kihei, Hawaii Your letters [on global warming] for November/December had a mix of
intelligent and lunatic. Bob Wieting’s showed the most clarity, pointing out the same issue I noticed when reading: that global warming is a fact and the main issue now is to understand the
relative importance of each component. Jean Louis Forcina cited no facts and while decrying people who “look at the crowd and see your friends” automatically labeled any scientist who agreed with facts to be Luddites (the paranoid opposite of the quote). Then there are folks such as Walt Kimball, who used the old half-truth
lie to try to justify society not doing anything. His statement about it
being warmer 900 years ago is a case
in point. Nobody who supports the
science of human interaction in global warming denies that there are non-human reasons for climate change, but people such as him claim that other causes somehow obviate the possibility
of human-caused climate changes. That’s not science, that’s faith. Claiming that no major problems happened at the Medieval Optimum is just
as sketchy. There’s not a lot of detailed
history about the impact of those changes, so that basic claim is specious. More importantly, we aren’t living 1,000 years ago. We have a much higher population and major population centers in many low-lying areas. That minimizes the ability of people to relocate, and changes
in climate would have a much greater impact on current agricultural locations and methods. Meanwhile, a strange thing called industry happened. To deny that the human species has changed its ability to significantly impact the environment is
to imitate another species—the ostrich. Yes, there is natural climate change. However, that in no way means we should ignore the human contribution to adverse climate change, especially considering its impact upon our species. David Teich, MS ’84
Petach Tikva, Israel
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